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Prediction for CME (2025-10-23T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-23T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42035/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2 imagery and may be faintly visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is speculative but may be related to an eruption from Active Region 14256 (S16W22) starting around 2025-10-23T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 304 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-27T13:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-26T22:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-23T23:30Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 440
Longitude (deg): W015
Latitude (deg): S15
Half-angular width (deg): 20

Notes: Low confidence, based on St A cor2 analysis as hard to distinguish in SOHO C2/C3 or GOES ccor1 due to other activity. Weak glancing impact likely but may be enhanced by fast winds.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 46.22 hour(s)
Difference: 15.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-10-25T15:25Z

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